Monday, January 7, 2008

UK: Digital ad spend to surpass TV in 09

So our parent company, WPP, is predicting that in 2009 that ad spend on digital channels will surpass TV in the UK.

Taken from

"The forecast was made by Group M, a subsidiary of Sir Martin Sorrell's WPP group, which expects UK internet advertising revenues to swell by more than 30 per cent to £3.4bn this year. TV advertising, on the other hand, is expected to grow by less than 1 per cent to £3.56bn in 2008. And by 2009, after Sweden, the UK is likely to become the world's first major economy to witness the ascent of the internet past one of its biggest rival mediums in the advertising arena."

I guess the important question for Australian marketers is - when will this happen locally?

And personally I think it is a matter of 'when' not 'if'.

Well, let's look at local data from CEASA.

Total advertising spend for the 12 months ending June 2007 - $9.596b

How does this split?

TV - 3.022b
Print - 3.464b

According to CEASA online accounts for 11.3% of total ad spend - $1.19b (ABVS data used)

In this 06/07 period we had 54.2% growth in digital according to CEASA. It is generally felt digital will sustain approx. 30% growth per year over the next 3-4 years. TV had negative growth (as a share of ad spend not in a financial sense) as did all other mediums (online growth needs to come at the expense of other mediums)

If digital grows at 30% for the next 4 years it will account for 32.2% of total advertising. If TV sees the same decrease it did in 07 (approx 2.3% year on year) it will account for 28.7% in 2011.

Press is the dominant media in AU - however if that sees the same 1.2% decrease each of the next 4 years (as it did in 07) it will represent 33.3% - a touch over digital.

I admit, these are all hypothetical figures based on one data source and loaded with assumptions that things won't really change in the traditional media landscape - but it does create an interesting scenario.

Is digital prepared to be the dominant media in 2011? Are clients ready for this shift? Are publishers sophisticated enough? Are creative agencies ready? Are media agencies even ready? Do we have the talent to drive digital to what appears to be its destiny?

More importantly - will 08 see digital work closer with both press and TV. In the past few years digital has started to work alongside TV (especially through ninemsn), however digital and press often struggle to find synergies to offer advertisers and sometimes it feels like they work against eachother as opposed to working hand in hand. 08 will be interesting to see how News Ltd tackle combining their burgeoning online properties with their dominant print mastheads.

And lastly, will 08 see more conservative advertisers such as retailers, food, pharma and cosmetics dip their toe in the digital water?
*** image stolen from

No comments: